Pro Football Anthropology: Sleepers and Busts

This page compares face morphs of sleepers and busts for quarterback, running back and wide receiver. Sleepers are players who performed much better than expected relative to their draft position. Busts are players who performed much worse. For some wide receivers and running backs, high draft picks that performed well are also included. All photos used in the morphs were dated within a year of the player's rookie year in the NFL.

Quarterback

White QB Sleepers and Busts

The above sleepers face is a morph of Tom Brady, Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Joe Montanna, and Aaron Rodgers. The busts face is a morph of Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Matt Leinert, and Cade McNown. Only quarterbacks from the past 30 years were used because there are fewer large photos on the Internet of quarterbacks from earlier decades. Also, only quarterbacks who are out of the league were used for the busts category because current players who are considered busts, such as Blaine Gabbert or Brady Quinn, might have a late career turn around like Alex Smith did

Black QB Sleepers and Busts

The above sleepers face is a morph of Warren Moon, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Randall Cunningham, David Garrard, and Jeff Blake. The busts face is a morph of Andre Ware, JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, Quincy Carter, Vince Young, And Byron Leftwich. Overall the black sleepers are not as accomplished as the white sleepers above, nor are the black busts as bad as the white busts. This is because there is a bigger pool of white quarterbacks to choose from, so there are more really good ones and more really bad ones for the white morph.

Comparison

Runningback

Runningbacks: Good High Picks and Busts from 2005 through 2011

Good High Picks include Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Maurice Jones-Drew. Busts include Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Knowshon Moreno, Laurence Maroney, Felix Jones, Donald Brown, Jahvid Best, Beanie Wells. All photos used were Getty images headshots from their rookie years.

Comparison

Runningbacks: Sleepers and Busts from 2005 through 2011

Sleepers include Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Leon Washington, Darren Sproles, Justin Forsett, and Ahmad Bradshaw. Regrettably Arian Foster wasn't incorporated into the Sleeper category. This may be redone to include him and remove Forsett.

Comparison

Wide Receiver

"Good High Picks" include Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks, Golden Tate, Roddy White, DeSean Jackson, and Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson was not included with good high picks because he is white and would throw off the black racial paradigm with which we are working. The busts face is a morph of Troy Williamson, Braylon Edwards, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ted Ginn, Mike Williams, and Craig Davis. Players drafted between the years 2005-2011 were considered. "Sleepers" is a morph of Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace, Brandon Marshall, Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, and Steve Johnson. The busts face is a morph of Troy Williamson, Braylon Edwards, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ted Ginn, Mike Williams, and Craig Davis. For each image, the Getty Images headshots of the player's rookie year was used. Players drafted between the years 2005-2011 were considered. Also, although not drafted, Victor Cruz was used for the sleepers morph.

Comparison